The risk of a third world war with Russia and her allies is a real prospect that the West should be urgently addressing, according to a leading risk management expert.
Dr Simon Bennett dismissed any notion of the incoming Donald Trump administration bringing about a detente with Vladimir Putin over his all-out attack on Ukraine.
His analysis cuts against optimism among some commentators that the president-elect may find a solution to the conflict, or at least continue Washington’s critical military aid to Kyiv.
Dr Bennett has sent a letter to Sir Keir Starmer stating that ‘it is pertinent to ask whether we are in the foothills of a third world war’ and calling for Western troops to be deployed to the border with Belarus to alleviate pressure on exhausted Ukrainian troops.
He spoke as the world waits to see what Trump’s strategy will be on the Russia-Ukraine war — a conflict the Republican has claimed he can settle within 24 hours of taking office.
Dr Bennett, who researches armed conflict, told Metro that the world will become an infinitely more dangerous place when the new administration takes power in January.
Tracers are seen in the night over Kyiv as Ukrainian servicemen fire at a drone during a Russian strike (Picture: Reuters)‘The Trump presidency is not a “glow of hope”,’ he said.
‘Potentially, its the beginnings of a conflagration that will consume the world. Even if there is a ceasefire, it wont last.
‘Putin wants Ukraine. He wants to restore the USSRs satellite states to Moscow’s orbit, which includes Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Poland, Romania and Hungary.
‘In my opinion, a Trump presidency will make the world an infinitely more dangerous place.
How could it be otherwise when you have a man who, in my estimation, is an unbalanced, vain, egocentric, immature, authoritarian ignoramus in charge of the worlds most powerful nation? Then we have Western leaders who put their own electoral interests before principle.’
The grinding conflict predominantly in the east is consuming vast amounts of Russian men and matériel and also placing a huge strain on Ukraine’s limited personnel and resources.
The respected US Institute for the Study of War has assessed that Moscow ‘will eventually make operationally significant gains’ if Kyiv does not stop Putin’s war machine but qualified that Russian forces ‘cannot sustain such loss rates indefinitely’.
The widening conflict — including thousands of North Korean troops being deployed by Russia — and nuclear sabre rattling by the Kremlin have been features of the war.
Donald J. Trumps incoming administration is likely to bring significant shifts in Washingtons relationship with Ukraine (Picture: Shutterstock/lev radin)
Vladimir Putin is implicated in the pursuit of hybrid warfare far beyond Russia and Ukraines borders (Picture: Contributor/Getty Images)Dr Bennett, who has taught risk management at the University of Leicester for over 25 years, puts it bluntly.
‘If the allies continue to watch from the sidelines, it is likely Ukraine will either be subjugated or razed by Russia,’ he said.
‘Ukraine is presently engaged in a bloody, fighting retreat, its forces overwhelmed by hordes of Russian conscripts – cannon fodder – backed by murderous munitions such as glide bombs and hypersonic missiles.
‘While Ukraine’s exhausted troops fight tenaciously enough, they lack the numbers and matériel to kill sufficient numbers of Russians to affect the course of the war.’
Dr Simon Bennett warned that Vladimir Putins imperial ambitions will not stop at Ukraine (Picture: Dr Simon Bennett)Trump and Putin reportedly spoke on the phone a day after the presidential election and touched on having another call about finding a resolution to the Ukraine war — but this was denied by the Kremlin.
Indicators that the incoming administration may step back from supporting Kyiv include Donald Trump Jr sharing a social media post suggesting that Volodymyr Zelenskyy is ‘38 Days from losing your allowance’ — a reference to the new president cutting arms shipments.
Meanwhile the bloodshed continues with both sides counting the costs in lives and Ukrainian civilians living under a daily bombardment from waves of kamikaze drones, glide bombs and missiles.
Ballistic missile launchers in Red Square during the Victory Day military parade in Moscow on May 9, 2024 (Picture: Alexander Nemenov/AFP via Getty)Russia is suspected of being behind multiple ‘hybrid warfare’ incidents in the UK over the past year, including the planting of an incendiary device on a plane which landed in Birmingham.
Dr Bennett, whose book ‘Atomic Blackmail?’ examines the weaponisation of nuclear facilities in the Russia-Ukraine war, said: ‘If the West fails to stop Putin in Ukraine, it will have to stop him in Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Moldova or Poland.
‘Have we learned nothing from Europe’s past?
Appeasement produced the Third Reich, which produced a world war, the consequences of which we live with to this day.
‘The problem, I think, is that few of the West’s leaders have any experience of war or understanding of how to fight one.
A map shows how Ukraine might look under a peace deal with Russia reportedly being considered by Donald Trump (Picture: Emily Manley, Metro.co.uk)‘The majority are university-educated middle-class political careerists.
‘And, as far as the Russia-Ukraine War is concerned, most are voyeurs, happy to cheer from the sidelines but too self-absorbed to commit.
‘Yes, they visit Kyiv, but only to spout platitudes, such as “we’re in it for as long as it takes.”
‘President-elect Donald Trump, who habitually puts his own interests before principle, is likely to cut or stop aid to Ukraine.
Ukraines European allies are being called upon to step up their support as the clock ticks on the Trump presidency (Picture: Reuters)Before the election, Trump’s former national security advisor, John Bolton, warned that aid to Ukraine was “toast” if America re-elected the arch transactionalist.
‘Ukraine will be saved from a slow and bloody dismemberment only if European nations send troops to that beleaguered land.
Failure to do so will rebound catastrophically.
‘There will be a Third World War.’
Russia suffered its worst month for casualties in October, according to the UK’s chief of defence staff Sir Tony Radakin.
On average, about 1,500 troops were killed or injured every single day, the most since the start of the full-blown invasion, he told the BBC.
Kyivs challenges include the two-month countdown to Trump’s inauguration, which brings an anxious wait to see if he will continue Joe Biden’s flow of military aid.
Boris Johnson said this week that British troops may have to be sent to Ukraine if the support is cut and Putin gains the upper hand.
There are signs that the UK and European nations are preparing to increase their support for Ukraine in terms of arms production and supply.
Sir Keir and Emmanuel Macron discussed putting Kyiv in the strongest possible position going into the winter when they met in Paris on Monday, but there is still no sign of their ally being given permission for long-range missile strikes within Russia.
The UK has pledged £12.8 billion in support since the start of all-out attack and hosted the Operation Interflex training programme, but the US remains by far the biggest provider of assistance.
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